Introduction to Successful Mission Success Fault Tree Analysis

This presentation was developed in response to the request for fault tree analysis support and explanation from numerous Projects.


Although Fault Tree Analysis looks deceptively simple, it is in reality very resource-intensive in terms of time and experience needed to gain any real design benefit. Few people really do them well. Furthermore, experienced fault tree analysts (brace yourself) Don't Grow on Trees...

There are many subsystems for which fault tree analysis should always be performed. Conversely, there are also many systems / subsystems which will derive little or no benefit from fault tree analysis.

Although fault tree analysis can be used quantitatively to determine risk, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a better tool for assessing overall risk to a program. PRA incorporates fault tree analysis, but also utilizes Failure Modes & Effects Analysis (FMEA), and other reliability and hazards analyses in quantitatively determining program risk.

Fault Tree Analysis, Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and Failure Modes & Effects Analysis ARE NOT interchangeable and should not be confused with each other.

For purposes of this presentation, however, we will discuss how and when to use qualitative fault tree analysis to improve a design for Safety and/or Mission Success. When judiciously applied, fault tree analysis is one of the finest tools a systems engineer has available for evaluating and enhancing a design for Mission Success and /or Safe Operation. Personally, Fault Tree Analysis is my favorite tool for analyzing a design. However, it is not the only system safety / mission success tool available. Nor is it always the best tool for all systems and processes.

The purpose of this presentation is to aid project managers and other responsible personnel, in evaluating which systems / subsystems in their projects could benefit from fault tree analysis. Alternative analysis methodologies are discussed for systems and processes which would gain little or nothing from fault tree analysis.


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is: Allen Long & Clif Ericson